CARS Government Initiatives

CARS' GR staff are watching the developments on the BREXIT saga very closely for two reasons: 1 - in case of BREXIT becoming a reality, Canada has to move quickly to implement a trade agreement with the U.K. - this one outside the CETA and the EU; and 2. - Canadian firms with large investments, using U.K. as the access country for staging their trade with EU countries will have to look elsewhere to find a similar arrangement. The confusing political/economic signals coming from the U.K. are exacerbating matters greatly, and are making long range planning very difficult, both for the Canadian government as well as firms with investments in the U.K. Investment in Britain is more important to Canadian businesses than exports to Britain. No doubt, Canada’s trade with Britain is material—it is the third-largest export market, with goods exports of $16-billion annually. But more importantly, Canadian firms have invested in Britain as a platform for sales into the EU and broader European markets. There is no accession clause in CETA for third parties (like a Britain outside the EU). The current status of the BREXIT negotiations (no discernible direction at this point) between the U.K. and the EU are at a critical stage. PM Johnson wants to remove the U.K. from the EU at all costs, including a no-agreement (which has been stimied by the latest legislation orchestrated by the opposition, which does not allow such resolution to the current situation), to an agreed orderly departure, where post-EU and U.K. trade relations are well defined. However, with the 31 October 2019 deadline looming perilously close, the orderly departure, in the time remaining, appears to be a near impossibility. The only rational thing remaining at this point is for the U.K. to ask for a further extension to the 31 October deadline, which PM Johnson vowed never to request, and the EU would still has to approve. In the meantime, Canadian investors in the U.K. and the Canadian Government will have to have their plan B ready to react appropriately when the time comes to implement Plan A or B.


Published on September 20, 2019